UPDATE - today Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick announced that the tariff exemption on electronics would be temporary and likely followed by more tariffs
I no longer use a clock to tell people the time. I use tariffs. If I want to tell someone about a past event this week, I tell them, "It was three tariffs ago." - Far more accurate as there are more tariff changes then minutes.
I mean.... you could just used nanoseconds based on that logic. The problem with using tariffs is that the chuckleheads announcing them are doing so at an exponentially increasing rate. So your units of time will be getting shorter & shorter every 24 hours 🤣😮💨
You say this as a joke, but I literally just started to invest in the US market after the tariffs. I know there were coming and had $30k CAN waiting to buy. My convos now include, I entered the market during the tariff war.
There’s a lot of dialogue that the main architect of the tariffs are partially Lutnik but mostly Peter Navarro. Peter Navarro co-wrote “Death by China” where he goes on tirades that would’ve been interesting dialogues if not taken to the extreme. He also famously quoted an economic student Ron Vara…who was just an anagram of Navarro. He made quotes of himself.
Architect is a big title for someone who's simply being an economic hooligan on an epic scale. Might as well call forest fire starters arsonic performance artists.
Up until now was an academic on the fringes. His lame little formula was primary school grade, dressed up to look somewhat advanced. Having an administration full of yes people has massively undermined accountability, and we end up with a stream of consciousness coming from the White House. It's embarassing.
Isnt it insane to have a youtuber explain clearly the numbers behind us and china trade relationship in 30 seconds whereas the us administration can’t seem to begin to do it for themselves in 3 months.
To have youtubers be more clear spoken than politicians isn't too surprising, but that the US, the sole world super power, seems to be led by such sloppy, penguin tariffing morons, that's pretty surprising.
This has made one thing very clear. The US is an unreliable trade partner, and efforts should be made to prioritize divesting and finding new markets. Taking the tariffs away, then putting them all back is something the president could still do. For all we know, he may only have wanted to try to avoid congress removing the ability to define an emergency so loosely, or his subsequently broad powers to combat those reported emergencies.
Do you have the ability for self thought? Let see if you do. Why do countries sells their goods to the US to include Canada? Do you think they do it as an act of charity or because they feel sorry for American citizens? If you are still capable of self thought, you will eventually come to the obvious conclusion that all countries that sells their goods to the US, do so because they make more money selling them to the US than they do to other countries. Now, let me ask why have countries like Canada not already been selling there goods to other countries. The answer is because those countries already have protective policies that prevent other countries from competing with their domestic goods. This is true for the EU and double true for China and India. Can Canada spend hundreds of billions of dollars to attempt to sell low grade oil to China. Yes they can. Will China pay a premium to buy Canadian oil to justify the info structure and the cost of shipping when they can buy Russian embargoed oil cheaper. No, they will not. Will China say they will in order to get Canada to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to insure that Russian oil remains cheap for them. Yes they will. This is true even if they only end up buying one boat load of oil from Canada. If you would like to know if China has a problem with simply ignoring any trade agreement with Canada, no they do not. Remember just because the CBC says it, doesn’t make it true. Try using your own brain instead of allowing Propagandist to do all the thinking for you.🙄
I would like to leave you with one more chance for independent thought. Why does Canada run around a 50 billion dollar trade deficit with the EU, even though Canada has a huge advantage over the EU in trade because the EU is in desperate need of Canadian liquified natural gas? Doesn’t Canada and the EU have one of those great “free trade” agreements with Canada? Do you possibly think the EU prevents Canada from competing in EU markets the same way the EU protects its markets from US competition? With selective regulation. The people your government are claiming are your friends aren’t your friends. They are simply the people that are paying the people in your government to sell them Canadas future, and helping to keep the liberals in power over Canadian citizens. Look for yourself.
@@aaronwernz5788 I think you're missing something here; countries don't decide to sell anything to anyone. Companies within those countries offer things for sale, and individuals and companies (both domestic and foreign) decide whether or not to buy them based on whatever factors matter to them (cost, quality, etc.). Sellers don't decide who their buyers are: buyers decide which seller to purchase from.
@@aaronwernz5788 It seems you are the one incapable of independent thought given all the claims you've made which can only be found on American propaganda channels xD
I appreciate the tariff coverage, even if it's what's eating most of your video topics. It's nice to have level-headed coverage of topics relevant to what's impacting the economy, even if that means your channel becomes a "tariff update" channel for a bit.
And now there's been yet another reversal. The Commerce Secretary today said that the exemptions are temporary and that more tariffs are coming. This administration can't stand a day going by without changing their stance. It's just pure chaos.
And maybe tariffs are basically market manipulation, creating massive sell offs and then announcing a pause happened once already. Great way to buy some dips
I like how the immediate reaction has been "no my iPhone will go up" but those same consumers are like "omg yes apple zaddy I WILL pay 1700 for a brand new iPhone which does everything the last one did but has slightly more round corners"
I want to continue pointing out that after you notice the bagel in the background looks like a tiny person drowning in a tiny pool you can’t unnoticed it
Does the last few weeks highlight just how silly and fragile the stock market is? When such a small amount of people can have such a huge impact on so much money
I watch nearly all of your videos, but I'll admit that overall they aren't the videos I tend to go for first or watch as soon as I see them come up. But lately with all the tariff craziness, I can't wait to see you post another video because you're one of the few I trust to give me a level-headed analysis of what's going on and the implications it is having and could have going forward It's sad that I trust Canada-bagel youtuber to understand the implications of sweeping economic policy changes made by the US more than the US administration that is actually making the changes, but hey here we are
Love the channel been watching a long time. The first catastrophe bond ETF just launched on US markets in April. Insurance link securities are a very niche investment that have low correlation to stocks or bonds (correlated to natural disasters). Would be cool to see your take on these products!
with $7T worth of US debt up for refinance this year (and total some $20T in Trump's this term, almost half of US government debt), it's gonna be a bumpy rollercoaster ride with lots of ebbs and flows.
The only thing that never inflates are the average earnings of most workers 😮💨 Not because the market can't shoulder paying them more, its because the market WON'T. Despite the fact the increases in average earnings are AMAZING for both the local & national economy. Sure, some people buy more imports, but most increases in wages go right back into the local community. It's when wealthy people earn more that more money gets extracted from the regular economy.
I thought the treasury sell off was caused mainly by VAR deleveraging, unwinding of the basis trade (1 trillion $ open positions - that are more and more hit with margin calls) and repatriation of japanese investors since us treasuries with hedging cost aren't more attractive than local treasuries.
The idea that China has more to lose is odd. China will keep the goods that Americans want. Americans will keep Dollars that increasingly fewer wants. China can sell their goods domestically or to any of the other 193 countries. Americans can stuff their dollars or try to eat them.
You're missing the point, the US is China's largest trading partner and you aren't finding a trading partner that consumes as much as the US. The only other one could possibly be the EU but the US is unique in that we have historically had low tariffs on imports compared to other countries. The EU has very high tariffs and are stating they are increasing them on China exports. Exports being the main driving force behind your economy leaves you very vulnerable it's easier finding a seller than finding a buyer. And is the main reason most advanced economies pivoted from export economies to service economies.
@@MrUploader14 That's not true. Since 2023, the United States is no longer been China’s largest trading partner. That title now belongs to ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations), followed by the EU.
Yeah, it'll be far easier for China to pivot away from US exports than it will for the US to pivot away from Chinese imports. China just has to grow their middle class and incentivize consumption, whereas the US needs to build factories and force former government employees to work in them (Lutnick said this, I think).
This video is one of many examples I've seen of respectable, highly intelligent and (largely) politically unbiased people denouncing these tarrifs as the herald of a major economic downturn in the US. I don't think the writing on the wall could be any clearer that my country is ruined.
"He's playing with the tariff, like a yo-yo in the air Up and down, up and down, nobody knows what's fair He adds a little here, takes away a little there Tariff, tariff, it's everywhere"
YUP! The current account and capital account are linked together. You cannot impact one without a reciprocal impact on the other. What’s more important a trade deficit (current account) or cannot sell your bonds at reasonable rates (capital account). Great video thanks for making it. 👍🏻
A treasury bond is an IOU based entirely, entirely on trust. President Trump has again and again shown his word is worthless. The risk has gone up, simple as.
Hold up, the Netherlands has a surplus with US and Trump still wanted to hit it with a 20% EU tariff. He should have put a negative tariff on it, so that if you import from Netherlands the US government pays you.
Would appreciate a video on option strategy ETF's like covered call ETF's. Yeildmax being one that seems interesting. On the Canadian side, I know Hamilton has some, HMAX, UMAX etc.
Conspiracy theories are usually dumb, but the "orchestrated bond sell-off" conspiracy strikes me as particularly so. If multiple countries had to sell at the same time to affect the market, it means none of them had enough bonds to do it alone. That would imply that, even together, they don't have the means to manipulate the market for long. Meanwhile, to keep the price suppressed, they'd have to keep dumping stock at prices they would _know_ are below market value. So they'd have to shoot themselves in the foot, to pull off a one-off stunt, that would be so unsustainable that it could easily just be ignored. And all of this bad reasoning is only in service of avoiding the obvious explanation: that if a guy with zero experience, awareness, qualified advisers, plan, or self control is in charge of the american economy then _just maybe_ the american economy isn't the safest investment right now?
The question of who is responsible for all these treasuries being sold is secondary to the effect. As yields grow, remaining bond holders holders are forced to either accept the possibility of further losses by holding on, or selling and taking their losses, and some will have no choice but to sell these assets as their value diminishes, resulting in a positive feedback loop.
China should now say: "Hey Donald, It’s 145% on ALL Chines products, or 0% tariffs on ALL Chinese products. No cherry-picking. Therefore we will add a 145% "export clearance fee" on all Chinese made smartphones, monitors, computers and other electronics parts shipping to the USA."
It should be noted that official figures for Chinese treasury holdings is more than likely an understatement as the Central Government is seemingly shifting it's holdings to State-adjacent entities that lack the same degree of oversight. China has also been shifting a lot of it's treasury holdings into US Agency bonds, specifically, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac for largely the same reasons.
I have heard the term. Japan is a canary in the call mine. Referencing their enormous debt to GDP. I would love a video talking about the problems. Japan is going through because of this.
Can anyone explain to me how Luxembourg can be the fourth biggest foreign holder of US treasury securities followed by the Cayman Islands at the fifth position? Are private entities included in the list and counted towards the country?
One problem is Turmp's oversized ego. In his mind he can't be seen as losing, any trade deal he will agree to, he has to make it look like he won. He is not as good of a negotiator as he claims.
Why complain about covering tariff news? Has to be a cash cow for your channel - something new every five hours! Would start working on the episode on Trump firing Lutnick too. Hello and thank you from Michigan.
Hey Bagel, you should invite Poilievre and Carney to long form discussion to your show before the election for Canadians who wants to understand their economic policies.
They are pretty straight forwards and standard for their parties. Poilievre wants to make the rich richer, focusing on Canada as a resource-extraction country by expanding oil production in Alberta and cutting taxes for the rich & big businesses and cutting gov't spending on everything he personally doesn't like. Carney wants to make the middle class richer, focusing on saving the auto-industry and building Canada's relationship with Europe.
I would love to see a video explaining how companies earn millions in profits but pay zero in (U.S.) taxes. I have read that it has something to do with moving profits around (on paper) to overseas entities and losses back stateside. Do Canadian companies get away with this?
Any big enough company is doing it. Usually it is by lending money from one subsidiary that is based in a tax-haven to the one based in a tax-having country so that all the profits of the latter are eaten up by the loan and thus the profits "occur" in the tax-haven. Another way to do it is to have the tax-haven subsidiary own some of the intellectual property (patents / logos / trademarks) and have the portion of the company in the tax-having country pay licence fees to use that intellectual property thus transferring the profits to the tax-haven company.
Wait, if China theoretically did dump their US bonds onto the open market, wouldn't that just allow the US to buy back their own bonds at a discount, lowering their future debt obligations?
The dollar dropped almost 10% against the Euro during the last 3 months. Holding dollar denominated bonds is a bit of a gamble for Europeans - and maybe Japanese or Chinese (state) investers feel the same...
China may have a relatively small footprint in imports compared to GDP, the issue is that we do a lot of value-add on those imports: we import electronics but a lot of it was designed by US companies which capture 80% to 90% of the ultimate profit margin on those items, we import lots of tools and manufacturing equipment, and we have supply chains that import components, materials (like rare earths), and other inputs directly for our own manufacturing. Building domestic or friendly alternatives to China and then decoupling could be smart; Decoupling from China BEFORE you build out domestic or friendly alternatives is profoundly stupid and moronic.
You forgot to mention the value of the dollar plummeting at the same time as yields spike. Also, I did t see a truth social post from Trump giving exemptions for smartphones and computers.
Tariffs will increase costs of finished goods and components used throughout US manufacturing. This will be an immediate and huge hike in inflation. To fight inflation the Fed will have to hike interest rates which will be wonderful for the billionaires but possibly take away the middle class. Inflation is so high that consumers are literally taking debt for basic life necessities. Collapse has indeed begun..
Well, one thing governments can do is be picky about which things get tariffs. Like, maybe they could lower or even get rid of tariffs on things we really need, like, say, basic groceries or parts that factories here use to make stuff. That way, prices don't go up too much for everyday things. The downside is that it might not help local businesses as much if some cheaper imported goods are still available.
That makes a lot of sense. It's like what Kelley, my FA, was explaining about my portfolio. She suggested diversifying, but also pointed out that certain sectors, like healthcare, are less sensitive to global trade fluctuations. She explained how targeted government policies, like reducing tariffs on essential medical supplies, can have a similar effect on the broader economy - protecting consumers from price spikes on crucial goods. It's all about finding that balance, just like balancing my portfolio.
She goes by Kelley Annette Lewis a renowned figure in the financial industry with over two decades of experience. I'd suggest you research her further on the internet.
China holds lots of USA bonds, (including Mortgage Backed Securities bonds). If they dump lots of them, the price of bonds will go down, the yields will increase, and the FeD will have to intervene. Do you remember the Waterloo battle, when Napoleon was defeated? The first who knew England won was Rothschild. He went to London Stock Exchange, sold of all his UK bonds, other holders did the same, which collapsed bonds prices, and before the closing he bought all bonds back at a very low prices. The next day, the news of the Waterloo battle officially arrived to London and the price of bonds exploded, making millions for Rothschild.
UPDATE - today Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick announced that the tariff exemption on electronics would be temporary and likely followed by more tariffs
I just need you to know that if you need to take a long nap, you're allowed to do so
Just long enough for Trump to get that iphone eh?
so pretty much so the stocks could temporarily rise and people could make money only for it to tank again.
this has to be market manipulation at this point . might be the first time when insider trading is done by the literal US president lmao
Lutnick says that everytime he caves in to pressure.
Gotta watch within 1 minute before this video becomes outdated
See if you can find the areas I fully re-recorded because of Saturday’s exemption news
@@ThePlainBagel trump making canadians work, stats checks out
It kinda did.
You know it's bad when Trump's trade advisor is learning about changes in tariff policies from Truth Social twits.
@ThePlainBagel so about that...
I no longer use a clock to tell people the time. I use tariffs. If I want to tell someone about a past event this week, I tell them, "It was three tariffs ago." - Far more accurate as there are more tariff changes then minutes.
🤣😂🤣
I mean.... you could just used nanoseconds based on that logic. The problem with using tariffs is that the chuckleheads announcing them are doing so at an exponentially increasing rate. So your units of time will be getting shorter & shorter every 24 hours 🤣😮💨
You say this as a joke, but I literally just started to invest in the US market after the tariffs. I know there were coming and had $30k CAN waiting to buy. My convos now include, I entered the market during the tariff war.
Hey, can I swing by for a visit in around 5 tariffs?
There’s a lot of dialogue that the main architect of the tariffs are partially Lutnik but mostly Peter Navarro. Peter Navarro co-wrote “Death by China” where he goes on tirades that would’ve been interesting dialogues if not taken to the extreme. He also famously quoted an economic student Ron Vara…who was just an anagram of Navarro. He made quotes of himself.
Honestly man, I found out about that yesterday and genuinely couldn't believe that this guy has landed this job
@@nickdaboss03we removed DEI and replaced it with whatever the fuck this shit show is
Architect is a big title for someone who's simply being an economic hooligan on an epic scale.
Might as well call forest fire starters arsonic performance artists.
Up until now was an academic on the fringes. His lame little formula was primary school grade, dressed up to look somewhat advanced. Having an administration full of yes people has massively undermined accountability, and we end up with a stream of consciousness coming from the White House. It's embarassing.
Thank you reasonable Canadian finance bro.
Highly underrated comment
Yup. Every other RUclipsr is all bait titles
Isnt it insane to have a youtuber explain clearly the numbers behind us and china trade relationship in 30 seconds whereas the us administration can’t seem to begin to do it for themselves in 3 months.
Buzis Bundulis
To have youtubers be more clear spoken than politicians isn't too surprising, but that the US, the sole world super power, seems to be led by such sloppy, penguin tariffing morons, that's pretty surprising.
@@iverbrnstad791The American people knew what they were getting and 77 million of us voted for it anyway. Yes, our population is that stupid.
That's because politicians have an agenda. Transparency are not in the "cards" :/
Imagine being a small business owner trying to make sense of what tariffs you have to pay right now. Oof
He pronounced Reuters as Routers and now that’s all I remember from the video
This has made one thing very clear. The US is an unreliable trade partner, and efforts should be made to prioritize divesting and finding new markets.
Taking the tariffs away, then putting them all back is something the president could still do.
For all we know, he may only have wanted to try to avoid congress removing the ability to define an emergency so loosely, or his subsequently broad powers to combat those reported emergencies.
Do you have the ability for self thought? Let see if you do. Why do countries sells their goods to the US to include Canada? Do you think they do it as an act of charity or because they feel sorry for American citizens?
If you are still capable of self thought, you will eventually come to the obvious conclusion that all countries that sells their goods to the US, do so because they make more money selling them to the US than they do to other countries.
Now, let me ask why have countries like Canada not already been selling there goods to other countries. The answer is because those countries already have protective policies that prevent other countries from competing with their domestic goods. This is true for the EU and double true for China and India.
Can Canada spend hundreds of billions of dollars to attempt to sell low grade oil to China. Yes they can. Will China pay a premium to buy Canadian oil to justify the info structure and the cost of shipping when they can buy Russian embargoed oil cheaper. No, they will not. Will China say they will in order to get Canada to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to insure that Russian oil remains cheap for them. Yes they will. This is true even if they only end up buying one boat load of oil from Canada. If you would like to know if China has a problem with simply ignoring any trade agreement with Canada, no they do not.
Remember just because the CBC says it, doesn’t make it true. Try using your own brain instead of allowing Propagandist to do all the thinking for you.🙄
I would like to leave you with one more chance for independent thought. Why does Canada run around a 50 billion dollar trade deficit with the EU, even though Canada has a huge advantage over the EU in trade because the EU is in desperate need of Canadian liquified natural gas? Doesn’t Canada and the EU have one of those great “free trade” agreements with Canada? Do you possibly think the EU prevents Canada from competing in EU markets the same way the EU protects its markets from US competition? With selective regulation.
The people your government are claiming are your friends aren’t your friends. They are simply the people that are paying the people in your government to sell them Canadas future, and helping to keep the liberals in power over Canadian citizens. Look for yourself.
@@aaronwernz5788 I think you're missing something here; countries don't decide to sell anything to anyone. Companies within those countries offer things for sale, and individuals and companies (both domestic and foreign) decide whether or not to buy them based on whatever factors matter to them (cost, quality, etc.).
Sellers don't decide who their buyers are: buyers decide which seller to purchase from.
@@aaronwernz5788 It seems you are the one incapable of independent thought given all the claims you've made which can only be found on American propaganda channels xD
I appreciate the tariff coverage, even if it's what's eating most of your video topics. It's nice to have level-headed coverage of topics relevant to what's impacting the economy, even if that means your channel becomes a "tariff update" channel for a bit.
And now there's been yet another reversal. The Commerce Secretary today said that the exemptions are temporary and that more tariffs are coming. This administration can't stand a day going by without changing their stance. It's just pure chaos.
How much inventory does Apple have?
Amazon is doing unfair trade with me, they are ripping me off. They buy nothing from me. They need to buy from me and my family!
xxx Orange Man.
US Commerce Secretary Lutnick just said electronics exemptions are only temporary😅
Yeah, he says they will be added to a "focused semiconductor tariff" in a month or two.
Well, what can we expect from Sec Butnick who knows only about as* kissing instead of real economics?
What do you expect Sec Butnick who is known for being a massive kisser of Trumps rear end?
The Swamp is strong.
Small business owners get screwed while big donors and those who buy Trump crypto coins get tariff exemptions.
All these decisions seem to be temporary lol
Thank you for the news bagel man.
Thanks Mr. Canada
Thanks for the very clear and sober breakdown of a complex issue. Please keep on making these
He surrendered. That is just what he does. He acts tough until he doesn’t. Then he just surrenders and makes excuses for why he isn’t a weak leader.
Don’t forget that he has others do his dirty work!
Never clicked a video faster
And maybe tariffs are basically market manipulation, creating massive sell offs and then announcing a pause happened once already. Great way to buy some dips
Trump and his buddies are almost certainly doing this in some capacity
I like how the immediate reaction has been "no my iPhone will go up" but those same consumers are like "omg yes apple zaddy I WILL pay 1700 for a brand new iPhone which does everything the last one did but has slightly more round corners"
What about the penguins ?
Flippers up! They will prevail!
Fun financial grammar fact: It's stylized "Treasurys" ....not "Treasuries" when talking about 10 yr notes
I want to continue pointing out that after you notice the bagel in the background looks like a tiny person drowning in a tiny pool you can’t unnoticed it
lol , dammit , now I can’t stop seeing it . Someone save him
Dammmmyou
Dammmm you sir!!
The Drain Bagel
Does the last few weeks highlight just how silly and fragile the stock market is? When such a small amount of people can have such a huge impact on so much money
Well, it's a market. If you have monkeys running around making noise and thrratening to eat the bananas, people wouldn't feel great trading there
You’re my favorite Tariff news channel 😊
literally the only neutral youtuber in existence, ty king
I watch nearly all of your videos, but I'll admit that overall they aren't the videos I tend to go for first or watch as soon as I see them come up. But lately with all the tariff craziness, I can't wait to see you post another video because you're one of the few I trust to give me a level-headed analysis of what's going on and the implications it is having and could have going forward
It's sad that I trust Canada-bagel youtuber to understand the implications of sweeping economic policy changes made by the US more than the US administration that is actually making the changes, but hey here we are
10:05 FYI it's pronounced "Roy-ters" lol
Thank you, President (of Canada) Coffin, for taking time out of your busy day to keep us informed. .
Love the channel been watching a long time. The first catastrophe bond ETF just launched on US markets in April. Insurance link securities are a very niche investment that have low correlation to stocks or bonds (correlated to natural disasters). Would be cool to see your take on these products!
with $7T worth of US debt up for refinance this year (and total some $20T in Trump's this term, almost half of US government debt), it's gonna be a bumpy rollercoaster ride with lots of ebbs and flows.
So was this partial deliberation day?
😂 or Defibrillator Day....
The only thing that never inflates are the average earnings of most workers 😮💨 Not because the market can't shoulder paying them more, its because the market WON'T. Despite the fact the increases in average earnings are AMAZING for both the local & national economy.
Sure, some people buy more imports, but most increases in wages go right back into the local community.
It's when wealthy people earn more that more money gets extracted from the regular economy.
If you get stuck talking about tariffs every other week, I'll still watch! I understand the concern, though.
I thought the treasury sell off was caused mainly by VAR deleveraging, unwinding of the basis trade (1 trillion $ open positions - that are more and more hit with margin calls) and repatriation of japanese investors since us treasuries with hedging cost aren't more attractive than local treasuries.
At this rate, Richard is going to have to make this a weekly series 🤦♂️
The idea that China has more to lose is odd.
China will keep the goods that Americans want.
Americans will keep Dollars that increasingly fewer wants.
China can sell their goods domestically or to any of the other 193 countries.
Americans can stuff their dollars or try to eat them.
You’re simply wrong. Sorry, guy, the US has more leverage than you wish it did.
You're missing the point, the US is China's largest trading partner and you aren't finding a trading partner that consumes as much as the US. The only other one could possibly be the EU but the US is unique in that we have historically had low tariffs on imports compared to other countries. The EU has very high tariffs and are stating they are increasing them on China exports. Exports being the main driving force behind your economy leaves you very vulnerable it's easier finding a seller than finding a buyer. And is the main reason most advanced economies pivoted from export economies to service economies.
@@MrUploader14 That's not true. Since 2023, the United States is no longer been China’s largest trading partner. That title now belongs to ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations), followed by the EU.
Yeah, it'll be far easier for China to pivot away from US exports than it will for the US to pivot away from Chinese imports. China just has to grow their middle class and incentivize consumption, whereas the US needs to build factories and force former government employees to work in them (Lutnick said this, I think).
China has long history of 5000 years without U.S 😊
Thanks for the quick run down.
This video is one of many examples I've seen of respectable, highly intelligent and (largely) politically unbiased people denouncing these tarrifs as the herald of a major economic downturn in the US. I don't think the writing on the wall could be any clearer that my country is ruined.
"He's playing with the tariff, like a yo-yo in the air
Up and down, up and down, nobody knows what's fair
He adds a little here, takes away a little there
Tariff, tariff, it's everywhere"
He is the WEF appointed joker, what else did do you expect.
Mr Bagel: I won't be covering everything the administration does
Mr President: challenge accepted
YUP! The current account and capital account are linked together. You cannot impact one without a reciprocal impact on the other. What’s more important a trade deficit (current account) or cannot sell your bonds at reasonable rates (capital account). Great video thanks for making it. 👍🏻
From the screenshots of newspages, I see you dont use adblock. Why?
Adblock is for wimps
I was almost expecting an edit at the end that says everything has been unwound, no more tariffs 😂
A treasury bond is an IOU based entirely, entirely on trust. President Trump has again and again shown his word is worthless. The risk has gone up, simple as.
Hold up, the Netherlands has a surplus with US and Trump still wanted to hit it with a 20% EU tariff. He should have put a negative tariff on it, so that if you import from Netherlands the US government pays you.
Technically entirety of EU has a surplus with usa, if you take into account the digital/services goods.
thank for your work!!
I feel bad for the value investors as the theory of intrinsic value is thrashed by "hehe, geriatric golf enthusiast pushes big red button"
Video is barely 3 hours old and already it's out of date. It's GroundTariff Day.... again.
Would appreciate a video on option strategy ETF's like covered call ETF's. Yeildmax being one that seems interesting. On the Canadian side, I know Hamilton has some, HMAX, UMAX etc.
Conspiracy theories are usually dumb, but the "orchestrated bond sell-off" conspiracy strikes me as particularly so.
If multiple countries had to sell at the same time to affect the market, it means none of them had enough bonds to do it alone. That would imply that, even together, they don't have the means to manipulate the market for long. Meanwhile, to keep the price suppressed, they'd have to keep dumping stock at prices they would _know_ are below market value. So they'd have to shoot themselves in the foot, to pull off a one-off stunt, that would be so unsustainable that it could easily just be ignored.
And all of this bad reasoning is only in service of avoiding the obvious explanation: that if a guy with zero experience, awareness, qualified advisers, plan, or self control is in charge of the american economy then _just maybe_ the american economy isn't the safest investment right now?
I know you said you didn’t want take tariffs, but I’ve really been enjoying your analysis
I can't believe the penguins managed to make Trump walk back on his tariff for them.
The question of who is responsible for all these treasuries being sold is secondary to the effect. As yields grow, remaining bond holders holders are forced to either accept the possibility of further losses by holding on, or selling and taking their losses, and some will have no choice but to sell these assets as their value diminishes, resulting in a positive feedback loop.
Trump doing in 2 weeks what Brics couldnt do in 4 years
Art of the deal!
Not just recent history, 10% is top 3ish percentage return days EVER
As always? "be safe out there"
Are you implying it's not a good thing to be safe? Not sure why you're criticizing this.
@canpiv09 I'm asking if it's as always or right now.
China should now say: "Hey Donald, It’s 145% on ALL Chines products, or 0% tariffs on ALL Chinese products. No cherry-picking. Therefore we will add a 145% "export clearance fee" on all Chinese made smartphones, monitors, computers and other electronics parts shipping to the USA."
Pierre as an "Outsider". Aight bro....
IM OOOOUUUTTTT!!!!
Truth sucks sometimes eh? 😂
What happened regarding tariffs on electronic goods from South Korea and Japan?
Still at 10%?
How exactly do you negotiate "a better trade deal" if the accusation of "how unfair the current deal is" is one big lie?! Please explain.
i have been thinking long and hard on answering such questions; but really i can't wrap my head around it.
It should be noted that official figures for Chinese treasury holdings is more than likely an understatement as the Central Government is seemingly shifting it's holdings to State-adjacent entities that lack the same degree of oversight. China has also been shifting a lot of it's treasury holdings into US Agency bonds, specifically, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac for largely the same reasons.
US consumers will freak out over increased prices and slow down spending, China doesn't have that concern to the same extent
5pm Sunday, Trump now says there is NO temporary exemption for electronics.
I have heard the term. Japan is a canary in the call mine. Referencing their enormous debt to GDP. I would love a video talking about the problems. Japan is going through because of this.
MORE MOOOORE! We need factual information in this world of disinformation. Can’t believe we have the US doing this
US used to complain about the same thing about Japan. Now China. Instead of blaming their own bankers and ceo's etc...
The US should have seen this coming, and should cap bonds held by each country.
Can anyone explain to me how Luxembourg can be the fourth biggest foreign holder of US treasury securities followed by the Cayman Islands at the fifth position?
Are private entities included in the list and counted towards the country?
At least the Brits knew when to drop Liz Truss...
The best deal makers always make decisions without considering longterm consequences!
Or understand what the hell is going on.
@@DAB65exactly! Genius-level deal-making.
One problem is Turmp's oversized ego. In his mind he can't be seen as losing, any trade deal he will agree to, he has to make it look like he won. He is not as good of a negotiator as he claims.
Any minute now, I'm expecting Trump to say China is eating the dogs, cats, and pets.
Richard can you do the THUG SHAKE?
Lmao. It's been 2 hours since posting it has changed again Trump just posted that there will be no exemptions.
He said there would be no exceptions. There are still exemptions lol. He doesn't know the difference
Why complain about covering tariff news? Has to be a cash cow for your channel - something new every five hours! Would start working on the episode on Trump firing Lutnick too. Hello and thank you from Michigan.
Hey Bagel, you should invite Poilievre and Carney to long form discussion to your show before the election for Canadians who wants to understand their economic policies.
They are pretty straight forwards and standard for their parties. Poilievre wants to make the rich richer, focusing on Canada as a resource-extraction country by expanding oil production in Alberta and cutting taxes for the rich & big businesses and cutting gov't spending on everything he personally doesn't like. Carney wants to make the middle class richer, focusing on saving the auto-industry and building Canada's relationship with Europe.
I would love to see a video explaining how companies earn millions in profits but pay zero in (U.S.) taxes. I have read that it has something to do with moving profits around (on paper) to overseas entities and losses back stateside.
Do Canadian companies get away with this?
Any big enough company is doing it. Usually it is by lending money from one subsidiary that is based in a tax-haven to the one based in a tax-having country so that all the profits of the latter are eaten up by the loan and thus the profits "occur" in the tax-haven. Another way to do it is to have the tax-haven subsidiary own some of the intellectual property (patents / logos / trademarks) and have the portion of the company in the tax-having country pay licence fees to use that intellectual property thus transferring the profits to the tax-haven company.
It was not China, it was not Japan, it was not Canada, it was ... the penguins who plotted the treasurys sell off !!! Argh ! Damned penguins !
Wait, if China theoretically did dump their US bonds onto the open market, wouldn't that just allow the US to buy back their own bonds at a discount, lowering their future debt obligations?
Aren't the bonds meant to pay off the debt?
Wouldn't that just add to the debt?
You need to stop going after the headlines, the plain bagel is not going to keep being plain
The dollar dropped almost 10% against the Euro during the last 3 months. Holding dollar denominated bonds is a bit of a gamble for Europeans - and maybe Japanese or Chinese (state) investers feel the same...
China may have a relatively small footprint in imports compared to GDP, the issue is that we do a lot of value-add on those imports: we import electronics but a lot of it was designed by US companies which capture 80% to 90% of the ultimate profit margin on those items, we import lots of tools and manufacturing equipment, and we have supply chains that import components, materials (like rare earths), and other inputs directly for our own manufacturing. Building domestic or friendly alternatives to China and then decoupling could be smart; Decoupling from China BEFORE you build out domestic or friendly alternatives is profoundly stupid and moronic.
Interesting
You forgot to mention the value of the dollar plummeting at the same time as yields spike. Also, I did t see a truth social post from Trump giving exemptions for smartphones and computers.
The price of real phone and toy phone will soon reach parity
“Reuters” is pronounced “Royters”
Simply: Capital flight from USD denominated assets. Don’t buy products and they won’t buy bonds. Good luck w those high rates.
its not usa v china, its WEF v world population
phase one requires US removing all export restrictions which US did not do.
Nothing's like watching my somehow popular president rapidly move to leave my country poor of wealth, friends, strength, and honor.
Buy the dip Or sell the rip?
*Liquidation Day
Choose who was exempt from Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs?
A) United Kingdom
B) Ukraine
C) Russia
D) Penguins
In a smarter timeline, the obvious answer would be penguins 🐧
Does that mean that my dream of becoming an I phone assembler is shattered forever?😥
Slow the playback speed to .8 or .9
A small tariff of one million percent
China won't bow.. because of their dignity and culture
It’s not governments. Look up “basis trade” and “Japanese carry trade”. Therein lie the answers.
Tariffs will increase costs of finished goods and components used throughout US manufacturing. This will be an immediate and huge hike in inflation. To fight inflation the Fed will have to hike interest rates which will be wonderful for the billionaires but possibly take away the middle class. Inflation is so high that consumers are literally taking debt for basic life necessities. Collapse has indeed begun..
Well, one thing governments can do is be picky about which things get tariffs. Like, maybe they could lower or even get rid of tariffs on things we really need, like, say, basic groceries or parts that factories here use to make stuff. That way, prices don't go up too much for everyday things. The downside is that it might not help local businesses as much if some cheaper imported goods are still available.
That makes a lot of sense. It's like what Kelley, my FA, was explaining about my portfolio. She suggested diversifying, but also pointed out that certain sectors, like healthcare, are less sensitive to global trade fluctuations. She explained how targeted government policies, like reducing tariffs on essential medical supplies, can have a similar effect on the broader economy - protecting consumers from price spikes on crucial goods. It's all about finding that balance, just like balancing my portfolio.
I’d love to meet a financial adviser who can help me climb the financial ladder effectively.
She goes by Kelley Annette Lewis a renowned figure in the financial industry with over two decades of experience. I'd suggest you research her further on the internet.
Wow, her track record looks really good from what I found online. I'll take a chance and see how it goes. Thanks for the info
Just an FYI, "Reuters" is pronounced closer to "roy-ters", not "row-ters".
I can’t wait until 6pm ET Sunday when I can see how Nasdaq futures react to this.
China holds lots of USA bonds, (including Mortgage Backed Securities bonds). If they dump lots of them, the price of bonds will go down, the yields will increase, and the FeD will have to intervene.
Do you remember the Waterloo battle, when Napoleon was defeated? The first who knew England won was Rothschild. He went to London Stock Exchange, sold of all his UK bonds, other holders did the same, which collapsed bonds prices, and before the closing he bought all bonds back at a very low prices. The next day, the news of the Waterloo battle officially arrived to London and the price of bonds exploded, making millions for Rothschild.